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Find where the betting line is wrong. 61.6% on 3,288 fights the model never saw · every miss posted
UFC Betting Analytics

Find where the betting line is wrong.

UFC picks with the math shown and the losses posted. One model calls every fight without ever seeing the odds; a second flags the fights where the price looks off.

61.6% straight-up across 3,288 never-seen fights · Locks hit 74.7% (simulated) Picks locked at first write · misses shown · live record since July 2026 Verify it →
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The next UFC card

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Main event first, top of the card down.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees. Nothing here is betting advice — bet the price, not the pick.

Track record

Every pick graded in public, misses included.
See the full graded record →

One engine, two honest numbers. Fight IQ — the engine's tape-only face — has been graded on 3,288 fights it never trained on: 61.6% of its picks were right, and its highest-confidence Locks hit 74.7% (722 picks). Just backing the closing favorite gets about 68% — we publish a number that loses to Vegas because a model within seven points of the market without ever looking at the market is a model you can actually trust to be independent of it. Value — the money face — flags a bet only when the engine's number beats the vig-free market price by 4+ points: its 658 simulated bets, graded at real closing prices, went 519-139 (+10.0% when bets are sized to the edge; roughly break-even at flat $100 — short-priced favorites pay small). Those results are the walk-forward replay, simulated point-in-time and labeled as such; the replay's first, uncalibrated year is excluded from everything we publish. The live record started July 2026 and is still tiny — 12-5 on settled flags, down $61 at flat $100 so far. The Proof Center grades every pick, and the Factor Lab shows which stats survive the market. Numbers on this panel are a snapshot as of Aug 18, 2026.

The toolkit

Everything you need to work a card, framed around one question: where's the value?

Why trust it?

3,288
never-seen fights graded
74.7%
Lock-tier accuracy (simulated)
8,937
fights in the database
Locked
every live pick at first write
The record numbers refresh from the pick database on every load — accuracy, calibration, profit, and the misses, graded in the open. See the full track record → · Read the methodology

How to use CFL before a card

1
Check the model pick
Who the model likes, and by how much.
2
Review confidence
High, medium, or a thin lean worth a second look.
3
Compare edge factors
The reasons driving the pick — age, cardio, takedown defense.
4
Check sportsbook odds
Line up the model's number against the price.
5
Bet only on value
When the price gives an edge — never on hype.