Find where the betting line is wrong.
UFC picks with the math shown and the losses posted. One model calls every fight without ever seeing the odds; a second flags the fights where the price looks off.
The next UFC card
Track record
One engine, two honest numbers. Fight IQ — the engine's tape-only face — has been graded on 3,288 fights it never trained on: 61.6% of its picks were right, and its highest-confidence Locks hit 74.7% (722 picks). Just backing the closing favorite gets about 68% — we publish a number that loses to Vegas because a model within seven points of the market without ever looking at the market is a model you can actually trust to be independent of it. Value — the money face — flags a bet only when the engine's number beats the vig-free market price by 4+ points: its 658 simulated bets, graded at real closing prices, went 519-139 (+10.0% when bets are sized to the edge; roughly break-even at flat $100 — short-priced favorites pay small). Those results are the walk-forward replay, simulated point-in-time and labeled as such; the replay's first, uncalibrated year is excluded from everything we publish. The live record started July 2026 and is still tiny — 12-5 on settled flags, down $61 at flat $100 so far. The Proof Center grades every pick, and the Factor Lab shows which stats survive the market. Numbers on this panel are a snapshot as of Aug 18, 2026.
The toolkit
Stack only the strongest edges
The Parlay Builder pre-fills the best available price we track and shows the model's verdict on every leg before you stack it.
Build a parlay →Spot late-round fade risk
Cardio scores show who holds output deep into fights and who falls apart — context for every pick, not a betting edge on its own.
Check cardio scores →The Factor Lab
Which stats actually predict fights — and which just repeat the betting line. Live rates, real sample sizes.
Open the Factor Lab →See how the engine is built
The engine's features, honest test windows, accuracy and ROI — nothing hidden.
Read the methodology →